As with yesterday, a motley crew today from the football coupon. The English Premier League, French Ligue 1 and Dutch Eredivisie kick off on Friday. Patience required, and in-play stats required on days like today.
19:45 - Hull City v Aston Villa - 2.64 Aston Villa
- 1-1 and 0-0 last season .
- 18th v 4th from last season.
- Hull did not beat a top 8 side home and away.
- Aston Villa were solid at home. Away they were vulnerable. Outside of the top 10, Aston Villa lost only 3 matches.
- If it's 'as you were'. Aston Villa should not lose.
17:00 - Vendsyssel FF v AaB - 2.18 AaB
- The last 2 head to heads were in friendlies.
- Identical results for both sides. 2 wins and a loss.
- 3-3-0 goals scored by Vendsyssel. 1-2-0 goals scored by AaB
- Little to work with . The market is slightly with the home side.
17:00 - Elfsborg v Ostersunds FK - 2.58 Ostersunds
- Ostersunds are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
- A draw and 2 consecutive losses in the last 3 matches
- no defeat in 5 at home
- not beaten a top 9 side albeit 3 draws v the top 4, 2 of those being 0-0
- 6 wins and 2 draws in their last 8 matches
- only 1 0-0 at halftime all season
- scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches
- only away loss came v 16th.1-0 win v Elfsborg at home this season
- On very recent form, I'd be with Ostersunds today. The market is not as confident, maybe because elfsborg are unbeaten in 5 matches at home.
- It could be best case draw for Elfsborg but on form they should not win.
17:00 - Sundsvall v Norrkoping - 1.87 Norrkoping
- no draw in 6 at home
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 0-0 at fulltime at home
- 2 home losses came v the top 5
- 3/3 losses v top 3
- 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half
- only 3 defeats. One came last match
- scored in every match
- only 2 away wins v 5th and 11th
- only 1 win away v top 10
- 9 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half
- I would side with Norrrkoping, with only 3 defeats but note that they have only 1 win away v top 10 teams.
- I would, based on season-long form, side with Norrkoping here today.
- Note the 2nd half goals bias. So if 0-0 at halftime, take that 0-0 on second half.
17:00 - Varnamo v Landskrona - 2.62 Varnamo
- 2-0 Landskrona in the only recent head to head
- only 2 wins. Did win their last match
- 5 consecutive home defeats
- 0-0 v 12th and 2-0 v 14th at home. Important, as they play 13th
- 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 1st half
- opponents have scored first in 6/8 at home
- 4 losses and a win last 5 matches
- 5 losses in their last 6 away matches
- no draw in 7 away
- conceded in their last 7 and last 6 away
- 3/3 wins v the bottom 2. 2-0 at home v Varnamo
- there is always a reason why the favourite is 2.62 odds. There is a cogent argument for both teams. Varnamo suddenly keep clean sheets v 12th and lower, 0-0 and 2-0.
- Landskrona 3/3 wins v the bottom 2.
- 5 consecutive home defeats v 5 losses in 6 away matches. This is not Barcelona v Real Madrid!
17:00 - GAIS v IK Brage - 2.04 GAIS
- 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads
- only 1 loss in 8 matches
- only 1 clean sheet
- scored and conceded in their last 8 matches
- 4/5 defeats came v the top 4.
- 2 home defeats came v top 3
- 9 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half
- 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half
- only 3 defeats
- 4 wins in 5 matches
- only 1 away loss
- only 1 away loss v 12th
- only 1 away win v top 12 ( 4 draws, 3 0-0's)
- both teams in good nick. But only 1 clean sheet for GAIS suggests that they will concede. Strong 2nd half bias for GAIS so you may want to take on 0-0 if 0-0 2nd half, despite Brage's 3 0-0's away v the top 12.
- With only 3 defeats, you'd have to side with Brage, despite only 1 away win v the top 12.
18:00 - Brann v Start - 1.43 Brann
- 3 consecutive Brann wins, albeit 2 came in 2016
- could go top with a win today
- only 1 loss came last home match
- failed to score only twice
- 3/3 wins v the bottom 3, 2 of the wins were 0-1 away
- clean sheets at home v 7th and lower
- all 4 wins came at home.
- 6 defeats in 7 away
- only 2 clean sheets
- 4 consecutive away defeats
- conceded in their last 7 away
- 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 4 away
- 100% defeats away v top 6 conceding at least 2 goals
- on form, Brann should be scoring 2+ goals and winning today. Simple angle. it could even be a win to nil, so 2-0, 3-0, any other home score might come in.